Analyses of the EU’s ability to promote democracy, human rights and minority rights in candidate countries
find that the EU’s influence has crucially depended on the regime type and party political constellations
in the candidates (Schimmelfennig 2005
; Schimmelfennig et al. 2003; Schimmelfennig and
Sedelmeier 2005a
; Vachudová 2005
). In states with liberal democratic governments (such as the
democratic frontrunners, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic), the EU did not need to use democratic
conditionality heavily. In such countries, the EU was also generally successful when it used conditionality to
promote particular norms, such as minority rights, even against initial domestic opposition, for
example in Romania or the Baltics states (for a more critical view, see Hughes and Sasse 2003;
Kelley 2004
; Sasse 2005; Schwellnus 2005
; Vermeersch 2003). By contrast, the EU’s impact on
states dominated by a nationalist and/or authoritarian leadership (e.g. Slovakia under Meciar,
Croatia under Tudjman, or Serbia under Milosevic) was negligible (see also Kubicek 2003a).
For such governments, the domestic political power costs of meeting the EU’s demands were
prohibitive.
The EU’s impact on democratic consolidation was most pronounced in those states in which nationalist
or authoritarian forces lost power to liberal forces, such as in Slovakia, Croatia, or Romania. Once more
liberal opposition parties assumed power, the EU’s conditionality – if combined with a credible accession
perspective – had a lock-in effect that endured subsequent changes in government (Schimmelfennig 2005
;
Vachudová 2005
).
Debate persists on whether the EU was able to influence the electoral defeat of nationalist/authoritarian
governments. (Schimmelfennig 2005
; Schimmelfennig et al. 2005, 2006
) argues that the EU’s influence
is limited to the intergovernmental channel (once favourable governments are in power). By
contrast, Vachudová (2005
) suggests that the EU influenced domestic politics indirectly and
helped create a more competitive political systems in ‘illiberal’ states that pushed them to
a liberal political trajectory. The EU empowered liberal reformers by informing electorates
about the implication of their choices for the country’s accession prospects and facilitating
cooperation and moderation of opposition forces. Vachudová thus suggests that even if the
EU did not directly influence voters’ choices, it had a tremendous influence on the nature of
the elites that won power in ‘watershed elections’ that marked the departure from illiberal
systems.
The importance of domestic costs as the main constraining factor underscores the explanatory power of rationalist institutionalism for the general patterns of the EU’s impact in the polity dimension. At the same time, Schwellnus (2005) argues that the inclusion of factors emphasised in constructivist approaches – domestic resonance – can provide complementary, but more convincing, explanations of the domestic processes leading to the adoption of EU rules, and the particular choices of rules within the scope of the EU’s conditionality.
A novelty in the context of eastern enlargement is that the EU has undertaken considerable efforts to
influence administrative practices in candidates, including civil service reforms, or anti-corruption. It may
well be that the EU ‘certainly hastened such reform and gave it a visibility it would not otherwise have
achieved as well as providing some legitimation for such change’ (Pridham 2005
) and there is evidence of
considerable changes in formal rules induced by conditionality (Dimitrova 2005
). At the same time, the
impact was varied and often restricted by post-communist legacies, domestic opposition, the lack of a single
EU model of administration, and inconsistent application of conditionality (Ágh 2003; Bossaert and
Demmke 2003; Dimitrova 2002, 2005; Hintea et al. 2004; Meyer-Sahling 2004; Pridham 2005
:
122-127; Reinholde 2004).
Finally, while a number of studies have analysed the impact of the EU on regionalisation, evidence
of the EU’s impact is limited (Ágh 2004; Brusis 2002, 2005
; Fowler 2001; Glenn 2004
;
Hughes et al. 2004a
,b
; Jacoby 2004
; Kettunen and Kungla 2005; Marek and Baun 2002
;
O’Dwyer 2006
; Sturm and Dieringer 2005). The lack of impact of the EU fits well with
the expectations of rationalist institutionalism. The acquis does not prescribe decentralisation
and the devolution of powers to the regional level, but merely the establishment of statistical
units for the purpose of administrating the allocation of structural funds. Although parts of
the Commission initially tried to promote a much more far-reaching interpretation of these
conditions, inconsistencies in the Commission’s message make the finding that domestic politics
was the main determinant of regional policy fully compatible with a rationalist institutionalist
perspective.
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